Hypofriend Interest Rate Update (April 2025)
Tariffs keep the world on tenterhooks - what needs to be done now?Updated on 4 May 2025
This has been a week that we will remember for a long time.
The tariff announcements from Washington reverberated around the world. The Economist dubbed it the Trump Tariff Show. The world order in trade has been shaken up by the announcement of a base 10% tariff, topped up by high country-specific tariffs.
Our own Washington insider Dr. Chris Mulder, former IMF and World Bank senior manager and economist, helps us to interpret current events and what they mean for the mortgage market.
His bottom line: the show is not over yet. The current 90-day pause of the country-specific increases will not fundamentally alter the onslaught on a trade system that has benefitted the world since the great depression. This shift will lead to lower growth and quite possibly a recession. We can expect this uncertainty to last the next 12-18 months till the US mid-term elections. As far as interest rates are concerned, the uncertainty is spilling over into lower interest rates in Germany and the rest of Europe.
For the housing market, this is a double-edged sword. Lower rates, but down the line, greater job uncertainty and consumer pessimism.
Global overview:
Two big new facts emerged:
The US tariffs, as announced on April 2, are unbelievably illogical. Economists were in disbelief. You can read Nobel prize winner Krugman or listen to Bloomberg News's renowned commentator John Authors. This all leaves no doubt that a rule-based trade system is being replaced at a breathtaking pace by a negotiation-based-me-first one. See, for example, the eloquent PM of the free trade nation Singapore.
Trump has responded initially by neglecting the market downturn. Instead, he was calling on his supporters and arguing that some pain is necessary. This made markets question whether his motives have shifted fundamentally. We see a risk of much bolder anti-democratic moves. We now look ahead to the mid-term US elections in November 2026 and are no longer certain the institutions will survive intact. You can also read one of the best analysts of all time, Ray Dalio (founder of hedge fund Bridgewater), on the turmoil we will face.
On Wednesday, Trump rolled back his tariff announcement for 90 days, except for China, the largest trading partner of the US, which saw its tariff increased to over 100%. But the problem is that the announcement itself, and its arbitrary nature, are already starting to create havoc, especially by reducing investments by companies that export to the US.
We still see a global recession as a possibility. The US imports 4% of the world’s output. It will drop by at least a quarter if all is said and done, and this will have knock-on effects through job losses and corporate bankruptcies.
While many people believe that the so-called Trump puts that he checks the stock market and will steer his policies to avoid a decline, we have some doubts. Yes, in the end, tariffs won't increase by that much and that steeply, but they will increase. Given that this is costly for the world economy, stock markets have to adjust. So, we don't see a reason for a full rebound as experienced on Wednesday.
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How did markets move?
Stocks erased over a year in gains since Trump took office, before clawing back one-third of the losses. Since then, some of the euphoria of Wednesday evening is slipping away and making way again for realism. Note also how much volatility shot up.
The German bond market also whipsawed but fundamentally has been trending down over the last month as the chances of a global recession are increasing. The largest one-day dip came after the tariff announcements on April 2nd. Rates are now back at the level of January of this year and below the peaks of 2024.
Current interest rate development
Mortgage interest rates are set by the banks in relation to the interest rate for 10-year German government bonds. As these bond rates have moved down, we will see mortgage rates follow.
Given the high volatility and uncertainty, we see banks being a bit slow this time in following the market down. Especially because they did not quite follow the market up as much either.
We should see mortgage rates with a 10-year term declining about 0,1 % to 3,65 % if current bond market rates hold.
You can follow the current rates in our interest rate tracker (see illustration below).
What Does This Mean for You?
Of course, a week like this does not leave you unscathed. Nevertheless, there is no reason to panic. Rates are coming down, and, after all, it is the purchase and ownership of a property that makes our customers independent of external influences in the long term.
It is always advisable for you to contact us in good time so that we can advise you on financing at an early stage. But at a time of such market volatility, this is especially true. And we are a broker that does understand what is going on and can hold your hand and avoid unnecessary panic.
Market Trend
We have seen very solid demand for financing since the beginning of the year, despite firm interest rates. We only saw some weakening at the end of March. The reason for this was the rise in interest rates in March, triggered by the announcement of the new German government's borrowing ability, which prompted some customers to wait and observe the market for the time being.
Of course, in the current week, we also see some softening of demand, given the uncertainty, but not much. Overall, we still expect demand to stabilize, particularly because the rental market remains tight and many clients want to make themselves independent of the rental market in the long term by buying their own property.
Our Recommendation
If the dream property is already in sight: Encourage you to take advantage of the current market environment. Hypofriend works with over 750 banking partners to secure the best financing options.
Early preparation is key: Support you in the early stages of their real estate search by clarifying how much you can afford and explaining the mortgage process. This helps make decisions concrete and alleviates concerns.
Especially in this time of uncertainty, we can help you understand what is going on and help you stay the course.
You can make an appointment with Hypofriend for a free, no-obligation consultation explaining how much you can afford, how banks set the mortgage rates, what mortgage decisions you need to make, like Tilgung, and Zinsenbindung, and how that works best for you.
