[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":618},["ShallowReactive",2],{"blog-article-whats-really-ahead-for-german-property-prices-2026-2027-forecast-en":3},{"article":4,"recommendedArticles":607},{"slug":5,"title":6,"listPicture":7,"listPictureMobile":8,"listPictureWebp":9,"listPictureMobileWebp":10,"preview":11,"category":12,"author":13,"authorImage":14,"authorImageWebp":15,"authorDescription":16,"authorSlug":17,"content":18,"contentRaw":19,"order":582,"publishedAt":583,"createdAt":583,"updatedAt":584,"seoTitle":6,"seoDescription":585,"seoKeywords":586,"seoImage":587,"mainPicture":588,"mainPictureMobile":589,"mainPictureWebp":590,"mainPictureMobileWebp":591,"language":592,"subTitle":586,"actionLabel":586,"actionType":586,"actionText":586,"id":586,"introduction":593,"tableOfContentArray":594},"whats-really-ahead-for-german-property-prices-2026-2027-forecast","What’s Really Ahead for German Property Prices (2026–2027 Forecast)","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F61qlPPB7YcT6uGtMuEZxVD\u002F0031d19efd13eccef6c230ae7fbfe6eb\u002Fnews-800x511.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F2U5AF4Jzh0sbYHDa3wNoKK\u002F8cf082a20057781fed438467ba5877ed\u002Fnews-380x243.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6bf2ZgIc6NGtMGyDDL8WdE\u002F8e617188029d1d7d7ca56c32e9b45e51\u002Fnews-800x511.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F1rJVpZ1NLJnsW62W5biSOf\u002Fab4284c09dfa1afc3e3670d4f879c4ee\u002Fnews-380x243.webp","Property prices in Germany are trending up again around their long-term average and 2026–2027 forecasts are converging.","market-news","Dr. Chris Mulder","https:\u002F\u002Fa.hypofriend.de\u002Fhypofriends\u002Fdr.-christian-mulder.png","https:\u002F\u002Fa.hypofriend.de\u002Fhypofriends\u002Fdr.-christian-mulder.webp","Dr. Chris is a former Senior Economist and Manager at the IMF and The World Bank. He is a Hypofriend Co-founder.","chris","  \u003Cdiv id=\"table-of-contents\">\n    \u003Cdiv class=\"headline\">\n      Table Of Contents\n    \u003C\u002Fdiv>\n    \u003Cul>\n      \u003Cli>\n  \u003Ca @click.prevent=\"$root.$emit('scrollAnchor', $event)\" href=\"#h-where-are-we-now\">\n    Where are we now?\n  \u003C\u002Fa>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\n  \u003Ca @click.prevent=\"$root.$emit('scrollAnchor', $event)\" href=\"#h-what-are-the-best-forecasts\">\n    What are the best forecasts? \n  \u003C\u002Fa>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\n  \u003Ca @click.prevent=\"$root.$emit('scrollAnchor', $event)\" href=\"#h-what-do-the-forecasters-say-for-2026-2027\">\n    What do the forecasters say for 2026–2027?\n  \u003C\u002Fa>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\n  \u003Ca @click.prevent=\"$root.$emit('scrollAnchor', $event)\" href=\"#h-the-supply-side-constraint\">\n    The supply-side constraint\n  \u003C\u002Fa>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\n  \u003Ca @click.prevent=\"$root.$emit('scrollAnchor', $event)\" href=\"#h-base-case-forecast\">\n    Base case forecast\n  \u003C\u002Fa>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\n  \u003Ca @click.prevent=\"$root.$emit('scrollAnchor', $event)\" href=\"#h-starting-early-is-often-the-best\">\n    Starting early is often the best\n  \u003C\u002Fa>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\n    \u003C\u002Ful>\n  \u003C\u002Fdiv>\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-where-are-we-now\">\u003Cb>Where are we now?\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>After a ~13 % decline in average home prices between early 2022 and mid-2024, the German housing market has quietly turned a corner in 2025:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>Destatis\u003C\u002Fb>: +3 % YoY (mid-2025)\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>vdp\u003C\u002Fb>: +3,5 % YoY (Q3 2025)\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>Value AG\u003C\u002Fb>: Existing flats +3 %, new builds just over +4 %\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp>The correction is over. Prices are once again rising — but from a more sustainable level.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n            \u003Cpicture>\n              \u003Csource type=\"image\u002Favif\" sizes=\"(min-width: 961px) 961px, 100vw\" srcset=\"\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=avif&w=327 327w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=avif&w=570 570w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=avif&w=961 961w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=avif&w=1200 1200w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=avif&w=1922 2x\n                    \">\n              \u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fwebp\" sizes=\"(min-width: 961px) 961px, 100vw\" srcset=\"\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=webp&w=327 327w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=webp&w=570 570w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=webp&w=961 961w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=webp&w=1200 1200w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?fm=webp&w=1922 2x\n                    \">\n              \u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" class=\"image-fluid\" alt=\"House price index\" sizes=\"(min-width: 961px) 961px, 100vw\" width=\"961\" srcset=\"\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?w=327 327w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?w=570 570w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?w=961 961w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?w=1200 1200w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?w=1922 2x\n                    \" src=\"\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png?w=961\">\n            \u003C\u002Fsource>\u003C\u002Fsource>\u003C\u002Fpicture>\n          \n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-what-are-the-best-forecasts\">\u003Cb>What are the best forecasts? \u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>All the best house pricing models predict prices based on the trend, but with some variation. And this is logical: the stock of houses does not change much from one year to another. \u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>This trend is driven by the cost of construction and the scarcity of land--which in turn depends on population and overall economic growth. In Germany, this trend has been about 4% over the last 20 years.\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>It is mostly shocks in affordability that affect how house prices evolve around this trend. So low interest rates--remember they almost hit zero in 2020--pushed up prices. The jump in rates in 2022 caused a correction, and now we are back to trend.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n            \u003Cpicture>\n              \u003Csource type=\"image\u002Favif\" sizes=\"(min-width: 961px) 961px, 100vw\" srcset=\"\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=avif&w=327 327w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=avif&w=570 570w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=avif&w=961 961w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=avif&w=1200 1200w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=avif&w=1922 2x\n                    \">\n              \u003Csource type=\"image\u002Fwebp\" sizes=\"(min-width: 961px) 961px, 100vw\" srcset=\"\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=webp&w=327 327w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=webp&w=570 570w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=webp&w=961 961w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=webp&w=1200 1200w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?fm=webp&w=1922 2x\n                    \">\n              \u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" class=\"image-fluid\" alt=\"House price index Trend\" sizes=\"(min-width: 961px) 961px, 100vw\" width=\"961\" srcset=\"\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?w=327 327w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?w=570 570w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?w=961 961w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?w=1200 1200w,\n                      \u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?w=1922 2x\n                    \" src=\"\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png?w=961\">\n            \u003C\u002Fsource>\u003C\u002Fsource>\u003C\u002Fpicture>\n          \n\u003Cp>Following German unification, massive building programs kept house prices low.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-what-do-the-forecasters-say-for-2026-2027\">\u003Cb>What do the forecasters say for 2026–2027?\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>In line with the above, the latest research points to modest, steady growth:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cb>Reuters (Nov 2025 analyst survey):\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>2025: +3,5 %\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>2026: +3,4 %\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>2027: +3,2 %\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>Trading Economics\u003C\u002Fb>: +2–3 % per year\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>LBBW\u003C\u002Fb>: +3–4 % in 2026\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp>These projections are broadly aligned across institutions. The consensus? No crash. No bubble. Just stable, low single-digit growth at a rate that is slightly below the trend of the last 20 years.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n            \u003Cwidget type=\"callToActionRich\" headline=\"Build your wealth in Germany\" background-color=\"#F7F7F7\" main-cta-label=\"See our projects\" main-cta-link=\"https:\u002F\u002Finvestfriend.de\u002Fen\" description=\"<p>Learn how to invest in energy-efficient, commission-free investment properties and save thousands in taxes every year.<\u002Fp>\" :pictures='[{\"url\":\"\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F4fM1kNSRDAGXcEwuLLCTN3\u002Fbb759bee2f34818b8fb470c81193cfaf\u002FRent-Or-Buy-800x534.jpg\",\"title\":\"rent or buy 800x534\",\"description\":null}]'>\u003C\u002Fwidget>\n           \n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-the-supply-side-constraint\">\u003Cb>The supply-side constraint\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>While interest rates dominate headlines, supply is the real structural factor. It is simply not enough at current prices:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>Germany needs \u003Cb>~320,000 new housing units\u002Fyear\u003C\u002Fb> through 2030\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>In 2024, only \u003Cb>~216,000 permits\u003C\u002Fb> were issued — the lowest since 2010\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>The Ifo Institute forecasts housing completions will decline further in 2026\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cbr>This \u003Ci>undersupply will \u003C\u002Fi>continue to support prices, especially with urban populations continuing to grow — especially in major metros. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-base-case-forecast\">\u003Cb>Base case forecast\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Here’s our synthesized view on national nominal price trends:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>2025\u003C\u002Fb>: +3.5%\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>2026\u003C\u002Fb>: +3.2% (range: 2–4%)\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>2027\u003C\u002Fb>: +2.8% (range: 2–3.5%)\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp>Even by 2027, prices will likely remain just below their 2022 peak in nominal terms — and noticeably cheaper in \u003Ci>real\u003C\u002Fi> (inflation-adjusted) terms.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-starting-early-is-often-the-best\">\u003Cb>Starting early is often the best\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>For most buyers, the key isn’t predicting the perfect entry point — it’s getting started and finding the right property.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>The earlier you buy, the sooner you benefit from \u003Ci>compounding\u003C\u002Fi>.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>A leveraged property appreciating at 3% \u003Cb>remains financially attractive, and a key to long-term financial well-being\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>Finding the right property that fits your needs and is well-priced makes the biggest difference \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>Especially in the dark days of December and January, you can find better deals\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp>If you’re not yet ready for a primary residence, consider starting with an investment property, especially now that new-built homes have become very attractive through double depreciation:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>Low-renters:\u003C\u002Fb> keep saving on rent while being exposed to the property market\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cp>\u003Cb>High earners\u003C\u002Fb>: unlock seriously high returns due to tax rebates\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp>Whichever path you take, the bigger risk is sitting on the sidelines waiting for perfect conditions — and missing two or more years of progress.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>",{"nodeType":20,"data":21,"content":22},"document",{},[23,34,42,92,99,116,124,131,143,150,158,165,242,249,286,294,301,352,369,377,384,432,448,456,463,521,528,561,568,575],{"nodeType":24,"data":25,"content":26},"heading-2",{},[27],{"nodeType":28,"value":29,"marks":30,"data":33},"text","Where are we now?",[31],{"type":32},"bold",{},{"nodeType":35,"data":36,"content":37},"paragraph",{},[38],{"nodeType":28,"value":39,"marks":40,"data":41},"After a ~13 % decline in average home prices between early 2022 and mid-2024, the German housing market has quietly turned a corner in 2025:",[],{},{"nodeType":43,"data":44,"content":45},"unordered-list",{},[46,62,77],{"nodeType":47,"data":48,"content":49},"list-item",{},[50],{"nodeType":35,"data":51,"content":52},{},[53,58],{"nodeType":28,"value":54,"marks":55,"data":57},"Destatis",[56],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":59,"marks":60,"data":61},": +3 % YoY (mid-2025)",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":63,"content":64},{},[65],{"nodeType":35,"data":66,"content":67},{},[68,73],{"nodeType":28,"value":69,"marks":70,"data":72},"vdp",[71],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":74,"marks":75,"data":76},": +3,5 % YoY (Q3 2025)",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":78,"content":79},{},[80],{"nodeType":35,"data":81,"content":82},{},[83,88],{"nodeType":28,"value":84,"marks":85,"data":87},"Value AG",[86],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":89,"marks":90,"data":91},": Existing flats +3 %, new builds just over +4 %",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":93,"content":94},{},[95],{"nodeType":28,"value":96,"marks":97,"data":98},"The correction is over. Prices are once again rising — but from a more sustainable level.",[],{},{"nodeType":100,"data":101,"content":107,"asset":108},"embedded-asset-block",{"target":102},{"sys":103},{"id":104,"type":105,"linkType":106},"6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq","Link","Asset",[],{"fileName":109,"details":110,"url":115},"chart (2).png",{"size":111,"image":112},28188,{"width":113,"height":114},600,371,"\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F6QkcdlzO8qdDc6xCvfw5bq\u002F3dcdad914de5afeddb59a4597134207d\u002Fchart__2_.png",{"nodeType":24,"data":117,"content":118},{},[119],{"nodeType":28,"value":120,"marks":121,"data":123},"What are the best forecasts? ",[122],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":35,"data":125,"content":126},{},[127],{"nodeType":28,"value":128,"marks":129,"data":130},"All the best house pricing models predict prices based on the trend, but with some variation. And this is logical: the stock of houses does not change much from one year to another. \n\nThis trend is driven by the cost of construction and the scarcity of land--which in turn depends on population and overall economic growth. In Germany, this trend has been about 4% over the last 20 years.\n\nIt is mostly shocks in affordability that affect how house prices evolve around this trend. So low interest rates--remember they almost hit zero in 2020--pushed up prices. The jump in rates in 2022 caused a correction, and now we are back to trend.",[],{},{"nodeType":100,"data":132,"content":136,"asset":137},{"target":133},{"sys":134},{"id":135,"type":105,"linkType":106},"7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j",[],{"fileName":138,"details":139,"url":142},"chart (3).png",{"size":140,"image":141},21316,{"width":113,"height":114},"\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F7BK8PxKEeJEybwJoLsyo9j\u002Ff554d86bcd23016a2fda78c77871bb01\u002Fchart__3_.png",{"nodeType":35,"data":144,"content":145},{},[146],{"nodeType":28,"value":147,"marks":148,"data":149},"Following German unification, massive building programs kept house prices low.",[],{},{"nodeType":24,"data":151,"content":152},{},[153],{"nodeType":28,"value":154,"marks":155,"data":157},"What do the forecasters say for 2026–2027?",[156],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":35,"data":159,"content":160},{},[161],{"nodeType":28,"value":162,"marks":163,"data":164},"In line with the above, the latest research points to modest, steady growth:",[],{},{"nodeType":43,"data":166,"content":167},{},[168,212,227],{"nodeType":47,"data":169,"content":170},{},[171,179],{"nodeType":35,"data":172,"content":173},{},[174],{"nodeType":28,"value":175,"marks":176,"data":178},"Reuters (Nov 2025 analyst survey):",[177],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":43,"data":180,"content":181},{},[182,192,202],{"nodeType":47,"data":183,"content":184},{},[185],{"nodeType":35,"data":186,"content":187},{},[188],{"nodeType":28,"value":189,"marks":190,"data":191},"2025: +3,5 %",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":193,"content":194},{},[195],{"nodeType":35,"data":196,"content":197},{},[198],{"nodeType":28,"value":199,"marks":200,"data":201},"2026: +3,4 %",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":203,"content":204},{},[205],{"nodeType":35,"data":206,"content":207},{},[208],{"nodeType":28,"value":209,"marks":210,"data":211},"2027: +3,2 %",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":213,"content":214},{},[215],{"nodeType":35,"data":216,"content":217},{},[218,223],{"nodeType":28,"value":219,"marks":220,"data":222},"Trading Economics",[221],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":224,"marks":225,"data":226},": +2–3 % per year",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":228,"content":229},{},[230],{"nodeType":35,"data":231,"content":232},{},[233,238],{"nodeType":28,"value":234,"marks":235,"data":237},"LBBW",[236],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":239,"marks":240,"data":241},": +3–4 % in 2026",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":243,"content":244},{},[245],{"nodeType":28,"value":246,"marks":247,"data":248},"These projections are broadly aligned across institutions. The consensus? No crash. No bubble. Just stable, low single-digit growth at a rate that is slightly below the trend of the last 20 years.",[],{},{"nodeType":250,"data":251,"content":256,"entry":257},"embedded-entry-block",{"target":252},{"sys":253},{"id":254,"type":105,"linkType":255},"5V0iIbt5OvWzbo6j19hCaw","Entry",[],{"title":258,"type":259,"headline":260,"description":261,"backgroundColor":271,"mainCtaLabel":272,"mainCtaLink":273,"pictures":274,"imageAlignment":283,"showBankLogos":284,"contentType":285},"Blog: IF expanded CTA \u002F 3: Build your wealth in Germany (EN)","callToActionRich","Build your wealth in Germany",{"data":262,"content":263,"nodeType":20},{},[264],{"data":265,"content":266,"nodeType":35},{},[267],{"data":268,"marks":269,"value":270,"nodeType":28},{},[],"Learn how to invest in energy-efficient, commission-free investment properties and save thousands in taxes every year.","#F7F7F7","See our projects","https:\u002F\u002Finvestfriend.de\u002Fen",[275],{"fileName":276,"details":277,"url":282},"Rent-Or-Buy-800x534.jpg",{"size":278,"image":279},1035764,{"width":280,"height":281},1600,1068,"\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F4fM1kNSRDAGXcEwuLLCTN3\u002Fbb759bee2f34818b8fb470c81193cfaf\u002FRent-Or-Buy-800x534.jpg","LEFT",false,"widget",{"nodeType":24,"data":287,"content":288},{},[289],{"nodeType":28,"value":290,"marks":291,"data":293},"The supply-side constraint",[292],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":35,"data":295,"content":296},{},[297],{"nodeType":28,"value":298,"marks":299,"data":300},"While interest rates dominate headlines, supply is the real structural factor. It is simply not enough at current prices:",[],{},{"nodeType":43,"data":302,"content":303},{},[304,323,342],{"nodeType":47,"data":305,"content":306},{},[307],{"nodeType":35,"data":308,"content":309},{},[310,314,319],{"nodeType":28,"value":311,"marks":312,"data":313},"Germany needs ",[],{},{"nodeType":28,"value":315,"marks":316,"data":318},"~320,000 new housing units\u002Fyear",[317],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":320,"marks":321,"data":322}," through 2030",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":324,"content":325},{},[326],{"nodeType":35,"data":327,"content":328},{},[329,333,338],{"nodeType":28,"value":330,"marks":331,"data":332},"In 2024, only ",[],{},{"nodeType":28,"value":334,"marks":335,"data":337},"~216,000 permits",[336],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":339,"marks":340,"data":341}," were issued — the lowest since 2010",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":343,"content":344},{},[345],{"nodeType":35,"data":346,"content":347},{},[348],{"nodeType":28,"value":349,"marks":350,"data":351},"The Ifo Institute forecasts housing completions will decline further in 2026",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":353,"content":354},{},[355,359,365],{"nodeType":28,"value":356,"marks":357,"data":358},"\nThis ",[],{},{"nodeType":28,"value":360,"marks":361,"data":364},"undersupply will ",[362],{"type":363},"italic",{},{"nodeType":28,"value":366,"marks":367,"data":368},"continue to support prices, especially with urban populations continuing to grow — especially in major metros. ",[],{},{"nodeType":24,"data":370,"content":371},{},[372],{"nodeType":28,"value":373,"marks":374,"data":376},"Base case forecast",[375],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":35,"data":378,"content":379},{},[380],{"nodeType":28,"value":381,"marks":382,"data":383},"Here’s our synthesized view on national nominal price trends:",[],{},{"nodeType":43,"data":385,"content":386},{},[387,402,417],{"nodeType":47,"data":388,"content":389},{},[390],{"nodeType":35,"data":391,"content":392},{},[393,398],{"nodeType":28,"value":394,"marks":395,"data":397},"2025",[396],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":399,"marks":400,"data":401},": +3.5%",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":403,"content":404},{},[405],{"nodeType":35,"data":406,"content":407},{},[408,413],{"nodeType":28,"value":409,"marks":410,"data":412},"2026",[411],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":414,"marks":415,"data":416},": +3.2% (range: 2–4%)",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":418,"content":419},{},[420],{"nodeType":35,"data":421,"content":422},{},[423,428],{"nodeType":28,"value":424,"marks":425,"data":427},"2027",[426],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":429,"marks":430,"data":431},": +2.8% (range: 2–3.5%)",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":433,"content":434},{},[435,439,444],{"nodeType":28,"value":436,"marks":437,"data":438},"Even by 2027, prices will likely remain just below their 2022 peak in nominal terms — and noticeably cheaper in ",[],{},{"nodeType":28,"value":440,"marks":441,"data":443},"real",[442],{"type":363},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":445,"marks":446,"data":447}," (inflation-adjusted) terms.",[],{},{"nodeType":24,"data":449,"content":450},{},[451],{"nodeType":28,"value":452,"marks":453,"data":455},"Starting early is often the best",[454],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":35,"data":457,"content":458},{},[459],{"nodeType":28,"value":460,"marks":461,"data":462},"For most buyers, the key isn’t predicting the perfect entry point — it’s getting started and finding the right property.",[],{},{"nodeType":43,"data":464,"content":465},{},[466,485,500,510],{"nodeType":47,"data":467,"content":468},{},[469],{"nodeType":35,"data":470,"content":471},{},[472,476,481],{"nodeType":28,"value":473,"marks":474,"data":475},"The earlier you buy, the sooner you benefit from ",[],{},{"nodeType":28,"value":477,"marks":478,"data":480},"compounding",[479],{"type":363},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":482,"marks":483,"data":484},".",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":486,"content":487},{},[488],{"nodeType":35,"data":489,"content":490},{},[491,495],{"nodeType":28,"value":492,"marks":493,"data":494},"A leveraged property appreciating at 3% ",[],{},{"nodeType":28,"value":496,"marks":497,"data":499},"remains financially attractive, and a key to long-term financial well-being",[498],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":47,"data":501,"content":502},{},[503],{"nodeType":35,"data":504,"content":505},{},[506],{"nodeType":28,"value":507,"marks":508,"data":509},"Finding the right property that fits your needs and is well-priced makes the biggest difference ",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":511,"content":512},{},[513],{"nodeType":35,"data":514,"content":515},{},[516],{"nodeType":28,"value":517,"marks":518,"data":520},"Especially in the dark days of December and January, you can find better deals",[519],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":35,"data":522,"content":523},{},[524],{"nodeType":28,"value":525,"marks":526,"data":527},"If you’re not yet ready for a primary residence, consider starting with an investment property, especially now that new-built homes have become very attractive through double depreciation:",[],{},{"nodeType":43,"data":529,"content":530},{},[531,546],{"nodeType":47,"data":532,"content":533},{},[534],{"nodeType":35,"data":535,"content":536},{},[537,542],{"nodeType":28,"value":538,"marks":539,"data":541},"Low-renters:",[540],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":543,"marks":544,"data":545}," keep saving on rent while being exposed to the property market",[],{},{"nodeType":47,"data":547,"content":548},{},[549],{"nodeType":35,"data":550,"content":551},{},[552,557],{"nodeType":28,"value":553,"marks":554,"data":556},"High earners",[555],{"type":32},{},{"nodeType":28,"value":558,"marks":559,"data":560},": unlock seriously high returns due to tax rebates",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":562,"content":563},{},[564],{"nodeType":28,"value":565,"marks":566,"data":567},"Whichever path you take, the bigger risk is sitting on the sidelines waiting for perfect conditions — and missing two or more years of progress.",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":569,"content":570},{},[571],{"nodeType":28,"value":572,"marks":573,"data":574},"\n",[],{},{"nodeType":35,"data":576,"content":577},{},[578],{"nodeType":28,"value":579,"marks":580,"data":581},"",[],{},1,"Mon, 22 Dec 2025 15:36:54 +0000","Mon, 22 Dec 2025 15:48:00 +0000","Germany's property prices are trending up. We analyze bank research and macro models to provide a clear 2026–2027 forecast amid market uncertainty.",null,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F1BDcPvi2mzeBFIVvlqqnfv\u002Fabf527e40f0e9ff8c0723e9fcafc2a9d\u002FSEO-news-800x534.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002FBREsGn1gx9DcyD4pQALKk\u002Fa5f48eeb8aa0c84c46f29e6e909672a7\u002Fnews-1692x918.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F3kGcvr2GW8kEtd7JQ0cWcA\u002F50c325f611f4dd4f8acb77bf7e244ec8\u002Fnews-523x366.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F3NzWx2N8wlCWlS1En4EUqK\u002F374157194aab2f8b564784efb65ea54a\u002Fnews-1692x918.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fshj4zexxz7od\u002F1WlfuHRDFpibnFyPC6XmVv\u002Fda2a3a06981f3b1adec1a3edbaf1b867\u002Fnews-523x366.webp","en","Property prices in Germany are trending up again around their long-term average and 2026–2027 forecasts are converging. With so much noise in the media and uncertainty among buyers, we spent some time reviewing the most credible forward-looking data: bank research, macroeconomic models, and analyst surveys. Here’s what they show and what that means for anyone considering a purchase in the next 1–2 years.",[595,597,599,601,603,605],{"key":596,"value":29},"#h-where-are-we-now",{"key":598,"value":120},"#h-what-are-the-best-forecasts",{"key":600,"value":154},"#h-what-do-the-forecasters-say-for-2026-2027",{"key":602,"value":290},"#h-the-supply-side-constraint",{"key":604,"value":373},"#h-base-case-forecast",{"key":606,"value":452},"#h-starting-early-is-often-the-best",[608,613,614],{"slug":609,"title":610,"listPicture":7,"listPictureMobile":8,"listPictureWebp":9,"listPictureMobileWebp":10,"preview":11,"category":12,"categoryTitle":611,"categoryCode":612},"rent-or-buy-2026-does-buying-still-make-sense","Rent or Buy in 2026? Does Buying Still Make Sense?","Market News","hn",{"slug":5,"title":6,"listPicture":7,"listPictureMobile":8,"listPictureWebp":9,"listPictureMobileWebp":10,"preview":11,"category":12,"categoryTitle":611,"categoryCode":612},{"slug":615,"title":616,"listPicture":7,"listPictureMobile":8,"listPictureWebp":9,"listPictureMobileWebp":10,"preview":617,"category":12,"categoryTitle":611,"categoryCode":612},"our-german-housing-outlook-2025","Our German Housing Outlook (2025)","Maintaining a perspective that is both realistic and optimistic, our outlook for Germany heading into 2025 highlights continued positive trends in key areas. German house prices, having recovered significantly since late 2023, are expected to increase further due to persistent demand and constrained supply.",1787742004147]